Thursday, December 23, 2010

How to increase the probability in 2B pattern!

Definition: When market makes new high or new low, there is always a pullback. After the pullback the market will re-test the previous high/low. If the market fails to hold the new high/low, it signals a potential trend reversal. Trade orders are entered to sell the low of the bar trying to breakout or buy the high of the bar trying to breakdown.

This pattern is regarded as a high probability set up; there is one way to increase the probability even higher. Divergence is a great tool to see the dying momentum in the 2B pattern. The price will make new low or high to form a 2B pattern as we can see from the definition. In a successful breakout, momentum should shift to higher level but 2B is an unsuccessful breakout or you can say fake out, so failing momentum will be an early sign for us to not enter the breakout. We will now wait for the signal candle to enter the trade with confidence.

Target: The target is usually set at the ‘swing low’ prior to the new high or ‘swing high’ prior to the new low.
Stop: Protect your ‘long’ trade entry by placing a ‘stop’ below the recent low and protect the ‘short’ trade entry by placing a ‘stop’ above the recent high.




Tuesday, December 14, 2010

What should you look for in a trading system?

1. Profitability: This is a must when we look for a system .Lowering the risk factor and increasing the reward is simply the answer to a profitable system

2. Probability: One of the important elements of a trading system, but it does not always mean it will be a profitable trading system, if the proper money management is not in use.
3. Consistency: Without consistency we will not be able to breath in the on going changing market condition. A consistently profitable system will pick up some drawdown as soon as the extreme condition is over.

4.Flexibility: Providing Simple, Easy and Powerful System which can be used in any time frame and on any financial instrument.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

123 Pattern for profit




123 short entry
This pattern occurs at the end of a trend, they are an indication of change in the trend.
Point 1: Price will make a swing high.
Point 2: Downward correction to a swing low, where an upward correction begins.
Point 3: Price would then form another swing high, which is lower than the previous high
123 long entry
Point 1: Price will make a swing low.
Point 2: Downwards correction to a swing high, where a downward correction begins.
Point 3: Price would then form another swing low, which is higher than the previous low

Europe's threat to UK economic recovery

Friday, November 26, 2010

Buy the support and sell the resistance!




Support
Support is the price level at which demand (buyers) is thought to be strong enough to stop the price from further decline. The logic behind this support is that the price declines toward support and gets cheaper, buyers become more interested to buy and sellers become less interested to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.
1. The more times the old support/resistance levels are tested the more forceful it is if it is violated.
2. The volume on each test is very important because low volume on the test means price has no power to break the S/R line and if volume is high that’s means big buyer/seller are behind this force which has power to break the S/R.
After a support level has been broken, it often acts as a resistance level; this is because investors want to limit their losses and will sell later, when prices approach the former level.
Easy way to trace historical support or resistance is to look for V shape pattern in the chart. In the chart below we can see that price made several V shape patterns.

Resistance
Resistance is the price level at which supply (sellers) is thought to be strong enough to stop the price from rising more. The reason behind this resistance is that the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more interested to sell and buyers become less interested to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.
After a resistance level is penetrated, it often becomes a support level; this is because buyers who didn't buy at that price before it went up are now willing to buy at that price.
How can Support & Resistant Levels help you make profitable trading decisions?
1. Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential part to successful and profitable trading. Being aware of the support and resistant levels of stocks and indices or forex can greatly boost analysis and forecasting abilities.
2. If a security is approaching an important support level, it can serve as an alert to be extra watchful in looking for signs of increased buying pressure and a potential reversal. If a security is approaching a resistance level, it can act as an alert to look for signs of increased selling pressure and potential reversal.
3. If a support or resistance level is broken, it signals that the relationship between supply and demand has changed. A resistance breakout signals that demand (bulls) has gained the upper hand and a support break signals that supply (bears) has won the battle.

No direction!



The Market has no direction at all; it’s frustrating for both long and short term traders. Watch out for whipsaws before it damage your account. Channels in the pairs that I posted before still holding, so possible buy in GBP/USD, EUR/JPY and sell in GBP/JPY pair in the next couple of days,unless they break through the channels.

Banks Seek Exemption From Dodd-Frank for Foreign-Exchange Swaps

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Market volatility





In this volatile market condition, it is hard to be a technical trader. Bailout in Europe seems like a never ending story. Portugal is next in the queue, even though they said; they don’t need any help in this crisis. They are even threatening to get out of European Union. This is dragging the Euro down and shaking the whole market. Polish inflation is a concern for euro, who knows how long volatility will continue

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Why does the average forex trading strategy lose money?

Opening range breakout


The opening range is used by the World’s Most Successful Traders. This trading approach provides a trading path for the new and experienced trader alike. During the first 30 minutes of the day’s trading traders and investors are reacting to any news they have heard or analysis they have done since the close of the prior day. This makes the opening period psychologically very important to many traders.
I use first 30 minutes(for forex first 1h or asian sessioan can be consider as opening range) price action as my opening range.
What I look for to trade opening range high / low:
· A long tight consolidation at the ORH/ORL.
· Relatively high volume.
· Price is trading above to 10 MA for long and below 10 MA for short, if the price is close to MA that’s add more probability .
· Momentum in the price action is necessary when we enter this breakout.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Few trades


Some days are wild, you can’t get enough of any thing, and I tried to be a short term trader but I am not. I regretted it afterwards, when I saw that I was actually lucky to get out with some or no profit. I went long EUR/USD at the top and it was clearly struggling to go up, but I didn’t see that at all, it could have been a loss.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Not a good start


Not a brilliant day, for some reason i cancelled the EUR/USD long order and it can’t stop going up .I exited too early in the EUR/GBP as well, I am completely out of focus.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Long EUR/USD







Just one trade so far.Went long EUR/USD with one lot. Short term pattern looks bullish and conservative approach towards buying EUR from big players made some nice move today.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Baby boy

Hello readers, I know it's a long time since I posted anything on my blog, I am sorry for that. As you guys know we were expecting a baby and at last he decided to come out and by the grace of God mum and baby are doing alright. He had a little bit of a fever at the delivery and some kind of urine infection was the reason for that so he is now under doc’s care.
Hope you guys are making money and are enjoying life. Take care.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

$830 gain


Market is still unstable, Greece debt is apparently not giving comfort to the big players. I went long on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pair; after 40 pips gain I put my stop at breakeven as always. GBP/JPY just couldn’t give me enough time to react and stopped out.

Friday, March 26, 2010

ATR (average true range) Level Stop-Reverse System:



This system is very easy to understand and it is profitable. I prefer a 4 hour time frame to use in this system but 1 hour time frame is also recommended. The good thing about this system is that it will not only give you a good entry point but also a stop level and exit point. The Price Retracement is the most important element of this system, without a retracement or pull back we should not consider any entry point.
This system is designed to use ATR stop level indicator and has the following conditions:
· ATR stop level indicator

· This trading system is an always-in-the-market trading system.

· Long Entry: Price has to cross above the Trailing Stop Level (Red line) and we will wait for retracement and entry will be the high of the last candle of the consolidation plus 3 pips plus spread. We will not enter any trade if the retracement is too deep and breaks the red line.

· Long Exit: We will exit when the price crossing is below the Trailing Stop Level.

· Short Entry: Price has to cross above the Trailing Stop Level (Green line) and should retrace back and enter at the low of the last candle of the consolidation plus 3 pips plus spread. We will not enter any trade if the retracement is too deep and breaks the green line.

· Short Exit: Close price crossing above the Trailing Stop Level and that is our short exit point.

· Suggested currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP

· Remember that without money management a golden entry will fail to give you the success that you deserve. Do not enter any trade if the conditions don’t allow you to do so. You must take partial profit

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

1036 dollar profit


GBP was showing some strength and I was willing to join the rally but missed the actual entry .I had to wait for the pull back to enter long on GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pair. Vertical price movement from the fair value often end up in same way.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

$874 profit in four trades





Market moved and I was in, all my order executed on time and happy with the results. It could have been much better in this market sentiment. I was extra cautious and cut down all my position size into half, little annoyed there.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Money management



1. 1% risk per trade of the allocated capital and 5% risk for all open position.
2.First target (first partial) at 1% gain, second target at 2% gain. Rest of the open position will be keept open till the system say different thing.
3.ATR allows the open position to breathe in the market volatility .Setting stop at the ATR level is most logical and effective.
4.If the ATR does not apply ,high of the consolidation is the second best place to set stop.
5.Consolidation some times become too large to set stop, in that case we will use 1% rule.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Trading with Dow Theory



There are many times in a bear market when people (especially the media) start getting excited. The market starts to rally, and before you know it we have truck loads of market experts calling a new bull market. But how do you look through all the news and noise and really tell if a new bull market has really started?
Here is one way that has been very successful in keeping out of bad trades and staying in good ones over the last 50 – 100 years. Originally coined from Charles Dow’s own writings (if his name sounds familiar, it’s because it is one half of the “Dow Jones Index”) Dow Theory, as it is now called, is simple and quick to use. But why would we use Dow Theory?
Here are the main benefits:
1: Dow Theory is an easy and measurable way to recognise when the market is heading up, and when the market is heading down (and likely to continue).
2: As Dow Theory is viewed on a weekly chart, you only need to scan the market once a week. This means you can work full time and still trade successfully.
3: Being a weekly strategy, you get to capture the longer weekly trends. These will usually range from 5% to 30%, but can stretch out to 50%, 100% or more.
4: Dow Theory is easy to recognise. You do not need to have any fancy indicators, volume, or astrological charts on your screen to recognise a Dow Theory signal.

Now, according to Dow Theory, to have a bear market we must see a peak in price, followed by a trough, then followed by a lower peak. Once price trades through or closes below the previous trough, this is our signal to sell.
By the same token, to have a bull market we must see a trough, followed by a peak, then followed by a higher trough. Once price trades through or closes above the previous peak, this is our signal to buy. If this all seems confusing, I find a picture says a thousand words:

Pending orders




After two weeks of sell off, it seems like market having some rest. Consolidation period might be over at any time or be extended for weeks. Some of my pending orders have been set to the important levels, if the market takes my order I will add some to it.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Making Millionaires Out of Average Joes

Sometimes that magic million dollar mark can seem out of reach. I mean – you earn your $50,000 paycheck, and by the time you’ve paid the mortgage, the car, the kids, the wife / hubby, the insurance, the rates, the groceries, the renovations (this list could go on for a while) there is hardly anything left for yourself – let alone to invest!

The good news is that a million dollars and beyond is actually not out of reach, and you can achieve it with less effort than you’d imagine. You don’t even have to do anything crazy like sell your grandmother or walk across hot coals – you just need to know how to use a simple mathematical tool called “compounding”.

The Eighth Wonder of the World

Compounding – a wise man once described it as “The eighth wonder of the world”. You may have heard of him – his name was Albert Einstein. Others have said that the moment you understand it your world will never be the same again. But, what is it exactly?

Compounding is when you have some money, earn a return on that money, and then re-invest the returns and do not take any out. This has the effect, over time, of earning “returns on your returns”. Now it can start out slow, like growing grass, and this is why many people give up. But with time these small returns grow exponentially, and your grass instead grows into mountains.

Let’s check out an example with a young man we’ll call Jake:

Jake used to buy two coffees and lunch at work every day – costing him around $15 a day. Over lunch one day I pointed this out to him, and also pointed out what would happen if he invested this money instead. Jake was dumbfounded - he vowed right then to change his ways. Over the course of time Jake earned a 15% return on his money – let’s see what happened:


In his first year Jake saved $5,460, but had $5,851 in his account after his returns.
In his second year Jake had saved $10,920, but had in his account $12,643 after his returns.
After five years Jake had saved $27,300 of his own money, but actually had $40,301 in his account. As you can see, the gap between his own money and investing his own money was starting to widen.
After 10 years, Jake had an amount of $125,223 in his account (the grass was really starting to grow).
After 20 years Jake had a nice $681,243.
But this is where the real magic happened (remember those mountains I told you about). In the next five years Jake earned a massive $794,562 from his investments, bringing him to a total of $1,475,805. Jake was officially a millionaire, and all because he started bringing his own lunch to work.

By the way, Jake didn’t even miss the $105 a week by the end of this – it left his account first and he didn’t even see it. And he can now afford to buy any lunch he pleases, whether he wants to continue working or not.

How Can I Get Started?

As you can see the really magic happened in the last 5 years – so I can’t stress enough that the longer you delay the longer it will take you to get there. Now of course you do need some money to invest. If you haven’t got any (or even if you do) the best way to get started is to “pay yourself first”. Set up an automatic transfer into another account so you never see the money, and set aside at the very least 10% of your net income each pay. There is a great book called “The Richest Man In Babylon”, which describes this perfectly. Go for it! A regular person really can become a millionaire, and that makes me happy.
By Dave McLachlan

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

No trades today

One setup i was interested in but i let it pass . Another boring day full of chopp.

Monday, January 4, 2010

229 dollar profit


Happy new year to all my readers. I have just finished my second part of the advanced forex setups, it was due long time ago. Not much writing was left but I didn’t feel like finishing it. It’s cool to see how a simple step can get into something that you always wanted to do, with or without any influence. I always wanted to be a writer, when I went to school. I wrote some poems for my school magazine, I still have the copy of that .I guess your inner urge, the hunger for creativity is important for anything you want to create.